sNOw fun

Not much snow last night. Even the Sierra have been getting hosed the last couple nights. It is very difficult to forecast spring storms as the models have trouble with the transition seasons. We should see them get better around May, but for the next two months, look out. Despite the models showing amazing consistency amongst themselves and run-to-run, the changes occur less than 48 hours out which only makes it more frustrating. The point being, don't be too quick to jump on things this time of year (and also Sept/Oct) unless you are other worldly confident. I learned my lesson again. It just goes to show you that once you think you know how the weather will behave, it throws you are curve. My biggest busts come when I am overconfident.

That being said, this weekend looks cold and snowy. Very cold for mid-March actually, and this looks like a good bet. As to how snowy, it remains to be seen, but at least scattered snow showers. One thing to watch for will be the possibility of lake-effect snow showers off Lake Tahoe if the upper low does drop this far south. Of course, that will be localized and it looks to be most focused on the northern and eastern shores of the lake. If the bands hit the north hard enough, perhaps we make get some snow here in Cold Springs (along US 395 just before the CA border) like last week where we were the hardest hit in the Reno area. I know my kids are hoping that happens.